Cambodia, Vietnam might even overtake PHL in tourism without infra buildup

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Other emerging economies such as Cambodia and Vietnam could soon outpace the Philippines, especially in the tourism sector, unless the Duterte administration pushes through with its unprecedented public investment program that aims primarily to close the country’s massive infrastructure backlog, Secretary Carlos Dominguez III of the Department of Finance (DOF) said.

According to Dominguez, “Dutertenomics” is anchored on an unprecedented infrastructure buildup that will let the Philippines finally catch up with—and even outpace—its neighbors in Southeast Asia, which is moving closer to a single economic community under a highly competitive global market.”

Dominguez said that unless the government closes soon enough the country’s infrastructure gap and matches the infra networks of other member-states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Philippines will never become an investment-driven economy that can create enough jobs for its young work force and achieve true economic inclusion for its people.

“Weak infrastructure is the main reason our tourism sector lags way behind powerhouses such as Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia,” he said. “At the rate they are investing in their tourism infrastructure, Vietnam and Cambodia could overtake us soon in tourist arrivals. That will be a sorely missed opportunity. “

But an inclusive growth strategy moored to a “build, build, build” agenda requires an expansionary fiscal posture, said Dominguez, hence the need for the DOF to push in the Congress a progressive comprehensive tax reform program (CTRP) that will guarantee a robust revenue stream for the planned massive infrastructure investments under the Duterte presidency.

President Duterte’s “Build, Build, Build” agenda was presented to the public recently through the “Dutertenomics” forum organized by Malacanang, the Department of Finance and the Center for Strategy, Enterprise and Intelligence (CenSEI).

The tycoons of Philippine business, among them Jaime Zobel de Ayala of the Ayala Group, Tessie Sy Coson of SM Investments Corp., Danel and Sandro Aboitiz of Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Edgar Injap Sia II of Double Dragon Properties Corp.; Kevin Tan of Megaworld Corp.; and Michael Tan of the LT Group Inc. were among those who attended the forum’s second series.

“Dutertenomics,” is President Duterte’s economic strategy to dramatically raise funds–in large part through his proposed tax reform program–and spend big on infrastructure, human capital formation and social protection to sustain the growth momentum, attract investments and create jobs, achieve economic inclusion and transform the Philippines into a high middle-income country by 2022, by which time poverty incidence will have been reduced to 14 percent.

If “DuterteNomics” is sustained over the medium term, the government envisions the Philippines to be a high-income economy in one generation or by 2040.

“The call of this time is to build, build and build,” Dominguez said. “We have some catching up to do. As we move closer to an ASEAN economic community, we must match the infrastructure of our neighbors. We cannot hope to be an investment-driven economy unless we invest in improving our infrastructure.”

“Closing the infra gap that afflicts our economy requires an expansionary fiscal posture: a willingness to accept some amount of deficit spending and long-term borrowing. That fiscal posture will have to be supported by a more robust revenue stream or we will risk another bout with fiscal instability,” he said.

“This is where the comprehensive tax reform package comes in. Without this reform package, the economic strategy that aspires to bring down poverty incidence to 14% by 2022 and to single digits soon thereafter will be empty talk,” he said. “Without improving our revenues, we accomplish nothing.”

Saddled with a debt burden in the past decades, the Philippines fell behind its neighbors in productivity and inefficiency as the previous governments underinvested in infrastructure while most other ASEAN member-states spent double on infra development as a share of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), he said.

He said that, “Unless we become an investment-driven economy, our growth cannot be truly inclusive. We will fail to create the jobs millions of young Filipinos entering the work force over the next few years expect.”

“If this administration appears thoroughly focused on building up the country’s infrastructure, it is because this is prerequisite to our transformation from an exclusive and uneven growth pattern towards an economy that is truly inclusive,” he said.

Dominguez said that, “If we do not move quickly today, we could wind up as the country with the worst infrastructure backbone among the ASEAN countries. That will be truly ironic. We are an archipelagic economy. If we do not build up our infrastructure backbone, inequalities between regions will deepen. Island economies will remain cut off from the national economic mainstream. Poverty will remain widespread.”

The finance secretary pointed out that, “Modern integrated economies need to move people and goods in the most efficient manner. We cannot do that without modernizing our ports, introducing new means of mass transport and rehabilitating our major airports. At one point, it was more expensive to move agricultural produce from Davao to Manila than from Bangkok to Manila. This is the reason why Mindanao’s potential to become the nation’s food basket remains unrealized.”

Dominguez added that, “Today, Vietnam has double our per capita steel consumption. That underscores our record of underinvestment in infra as well as Vietnam’s determination to excel in a competitive world.”

Earlier, at the first “DuterteNomics” forum organized by the Presidential Communications Operations Office, Dominguez said the Duterte administration’s proposed CTRP bill now pending in the Congress is the “key link” to the “grand effort” to break out from the cycle of low growth and deliver a dynamic and truly inclusive economy to the people.

Dominguez said that Malacanang’s plan to accelerate spending on infrastructure and on human capital by upgrading the country’s educational and health care systems, along with its goal to lower income tax rates to sharpen the Philippines’ global competitiveness, would require additional revenue measures that could only be generated via the CTRP.

Dominguez said now is the time to move decisively in carrying out this “grand effort,” given the convergence of positive factors that are conducive to high and inclusive growth, such as the economy’s low-interest rate regime, excess liquidity, benign oil prices, investment-grade credit rating, a young, vigorous work force and the strong support of countries like Japan and China.

“We do not intend to fail in meeting the challenges of this time,” Dominguez said at the forum. “Fortunately, we have a leader capable of much audacity. We have a leader of vision and intense love of country. All the favorable factors are present. It is time now for a breakout.”

Dominguez said at the forum that to begin rebuilding the Philippines’ competitiveness, he said the government must start by filling the infrastructure backlog and realigning the country’s income tax rates.

Dominguez noted that “our personal and income tax rates are higher than the rest of the region. We cannot expect companies to set up shop here if we tax them more than our neighbors do.”

The President’s 10-point socioeconomic reform agenda, Dominguez said, includes an infrastructure buildup that will entail trillions of pesos in investments that are necessary to help ensure that the next generation of Filipinos do not remain “in the same poverty trap we found ourselves in.”

He noted that the Philippines lost out on competitiveness “in the decades when we neglected our infra while our neighbors rapidly built up theirs.”